Sunday, February 8, 2009

California's Critical Mass

I love California - it's simultaneously both the best and the worst place to live.
With it's scenic beaches, deserts, mountains, farms and cities - it seems to have anything any demographic could want.
With the Biblical equivalents of Sodom, Gomorrah and Babylon (San Francisco, Las Vegas (okay, it's not really in Cali., but it's a quick Southwest flight away) and Los Angeles), pleasure can be found by all.

But has the Golden State lost it's luster?
Can the state support 15% of the country's population in such a dense (the 11th most densely populated state) area?
Can residents continue to pay an additional 7.25% to 8.75% income tax (city, county and state)above their federal taxes?
Can the state overcome it's 9.8% unemployment rate?
Can the state's government continue to function with it's ever increasing financial deficit?
Can the state that was created from a dream continue to exist while maintaining an adequate quality of life for it's residents?

Water
Even though most of the state's major metropolitan areas are near the world's largest body of water, drought seems to be the almost perpetual state of being.
With the expectation of a third year of drought (and with no El Nino in sight) - of the state's top ten reservoirs, only the Don Pedro reservoir is above 50% of it's capacity.


Food
The second of the necessities to maintain life could be harmed by the first.
The state is a huge supplier of agriculture products. Four of the top five counties in the US (in terms of sales) are in California's Central Valley.
All those crops and animals need potable water (but in some cases, "grey water" will do).
But with no water...

Shelter has lost 49% of it's median peak value (from it's high in 2007 of $484,000 to it's current valuation of $249,000). But it's still cheaper to rent than purchase. Using the landlord's general rule of thumb (a house should cost 15 times the annual rent on a property) - rents usually run at 3% of a home's purchase price. But the costs to buy a home are generally double the going rent (add to the purchase price; taxes, insurance and maintenance and the real cost is closer to triple). Rents reflect what a person can actually afford to pay - not what they can afford to borrow. So the housing slump still seems to have a bit lower to go.

Clothing
If Global Warming is true - clothing may not be an issue.
But California clothing companies like Levi Strauss, The Gap and Guess? may have a hard time getting the cotton for their products.



Air is more necessary than anything mentioned above. But California's pollution still seems to be a problem. Using Ozone as a measurement - Five California metro areas are among the highest the country's top ten in terms of pollution (LA, Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno and Sacramento). A Huffington Post article states that more people die in California from pollution related causes than from automobile accidents.

Even though California has the lowest per capita energy consumption rate in the country - can it do more?

The Weather - Earthquakes seem to be the most common Act of God in California. In fact most people don't even notice one below a 3.8. But these earthquakes are the main concern behind the lack of nuclear power plants (and their desalinization benefits) in the state. But what about...

Mudslides!

Wildfires!

Tornadoes? (Riverside, California)

The hurricanes usually produce little more than good surf.

Inner city crime usually gives some parts of California a bad rap. But according to the FBI, only Oakland is in the top ten of our country's cities with the highest crime rates. But this is balanced by Mission Viejo, Chino Hills, and Thousand Oaks being among the top ten safest places to live in the country.

Like the rest of the country, it would seem that the state is more dependent on water than anything else. But with little hope for an increase in the supply of water, can the state survive?
Maybe every newly built home should be forced to have a cistern system like they do in the Bahamas.
Otherwise, the California Dream may quickly turn into a nightmare.

3 comments:

paisley said...

having lived in five other states before i moved to california,, i can tell you it is a mish mash of half baked ideas all thrown together.. i have never lived in a state that was so half assed,.. if it were not for my current living arrangements i would get the hell out of dodge... but then sometimes a deal is just too sweet to mess up.....

uglyblackjohn said...

Yeah, but I love my home state.
I was thinking about packing it up and going home. But after seeing how the lack of water could effect a state like Georgia, I'm leaning towards staying here. I only had to water my lawn three times last year. We usually get enogh rain to keep the place green. After a life time of brown (hills, lawns and even the air) in Cali., green is nice.

? said...

Researchers have predicted that the agricultural belt in the central valley may be gone as soon as 2050-due to global warming. By the end of this century the Napa Valley wine country will probably be gone too. if you add massive overpopulation plus a shrinking snow pack and water supply, it doesn't look good.