Saturday, August 8, 2009

Don't Believe The Hype !

Nah, it ain't over.
Despite what many news stories are (mis)reporting, the bad economic times continue.
Some stocks are doing better, some home prices have stabilized and some banks are showing profits.
But what does all that mean for you?
Probably nothing.

Saying that the economy is doing well is like saying that the Detroit Lions are doing well if they win one game this season.
Sure, 1-15 is better than 16-0, but that's still not doing well.
Financial institutions and retail outlets are supposed to point out the bright spots in the economy - that's their jobs (to get you to spend money).

But the smart bet is to take the lesson taught by Joseph in Genesis.
Most people have at least started to read the Bible.
Most people have gotten at least as far as Genesis.
So, this will be easy to understand.
Joseph was sold by his brotha's into bondage to residents of a foreign land.
Joseph was wrongly oppressed and endured many hardships.
Joseph rose to prominence by his intellect and character.

In a time of famine, Joseph made money.
Joseph saw that the economy was about to collapse and Joseph convinced his boss to save a little from each year's profits.
When things went south, Joseph sold goods at a ridiculously high price.
Joseph acquired wealth by selling necessities to a population who had become enamored with status goods.
These status goods were freely given up to buy food.

So, what's the lesson?
The economy isn't fixed.
It will get worse, despite this cosmetic uptick in the market fueled by your future tax dollars.
Invest in necessary goods.
Plant fruit trees instead of shade trees, have a cistern installed in your back yard, learn how machines work, get to know people and think before you buy.

Those foolish enough to continue in their conspicuous consumption will be the ones begging for food, clothing and shelter.
Those who complain about entitlements and government assistance (Isn't this whole economic recovery package just a huge form of corporate welfare?) will be screaming for their right to air conditioning.

Things may get better for a short time - but it won't last.
A Metropolis model seems most likely.
Just make sure that you've done the preparation to be one of those who is on top.


brohammas said...

sure the numbers say the economy is doing better... most companies have cut overhead (heads rolled), trimmed the budget, and as a result are making less money than a year ago, but themargin looks better by percentage. Hence, more people get fired but we say things are better.
What this is, or should be, is a necassary shift in American economic foundation which for 50 years has gone from production, to consumption, and within the framework of global economies, that is unsustainable. We are being forced to shift our foundation, the only problem is we arent sure where to shift too. We cant produce at he level of China with our high labor costs, we cant consume without easy credit (faux money)so we have to become innovators...
problem is our education never shifted from production. We have an education system that is geared toward producing factory workers not innovators. Till that shifts, thigs will suck for natively raised Americans and the better/lasting jobs will be filled by new Americans, ie Indians, Pakistanis, Japanese, and high end Euro's.
A free trading market requires specialization, what is our specialty?

FreeMan said...

Well when your stock went from 60 to 5 bucks it was bad but when it goes from 5 to 6 it looks great. I mean that's what the so called good uptick is about.

I agree wholeheartedly with the story of Joesph. I myself at this time am acquiring properties in a depressed market at such a price that you would think its a lie. These properties I can rent to Section 8 families guaranteeing me money for the rest of my life.

The new company I plan to start deals with basics also. I argued this same point on my post saying the basics are still what people will buy no matter the times.

The sheep won't change as they never will only the shepherds profit from other shepherds losing their herds! The man with wool during cold times is King!

uglyblackjohn said...

@ brohammas - Our specialty is still innovation.
Those smart enough to understand that they're getting hustled by playing the current game should know that they need to create a new game and make their own rules (even if it's small scale).

@ FreeMan - Yeah...,
but I'm not sure that the lesson can be taught - only learned.